Chinese baby boomers logic new bull market cycle is brewing - tanned

Inthe next round of bull market ,investors tend to prepare all kinds of divination ,but compared to some mysterious even fantastic predictions , baby boom theory seems more appealing to people .
For example ,a famous Chinese economist, according to the theoretical calculation, the new Chinese two baby boom occurred 49 years later ,corresponds to two wave bull market bull market ,a recent ( since 2011) will stretch to 2022 .
Baby boom is really concerned with the bull market ,Chinese demographic dividend foreground how ,what industry is the most potential ?Baby boom ( Babyboom ) ,it simply refers to a period and specific region, the birth rate greatly enhance phenomenon .
The word first appeared ,mainly refers to the United States after the Second World War, the 4664 ,namely, from 1946 to 1964 ,during the 18 years from the baby boomer population as high as 78000000 .
The modern history of several well-known baby boom ,is usually the cause to inspire people factors ,like crop bumper harvest ,to win the war or win sports competitions .As baby boomers why 49 years rule ,as Yale University tenured professor Chen Zhiwu first proposed the demographic dividend statement ,and in the last century in the early 90 will be the first time savings life cycle theory and the baby boom linkage studies ,which calculate when baby boomers who export reached before the age of 49 ,the stock market will go up theory .
History shows ,the United States ,Japan and other countries several baby boom birth rate and the relationships between stock ,can verify the above age 49 baby boom theory .Baby boomers and economic theory between the subtle relations, makes one to sigh, but this logic is adapted to Chinese market ?Upcoming fourth baby boom in fact ,modern Chinese baby boomers phenomenon is very complicated .
According to public information display ,louboutin pas cher,since the founding of new China ,there had been three baby boom .The first baby boom appearing in 1949~1959 years .The country implements the policy of encouraging the policy of family ,a family of four or five children is normal, the population growth rate of nearly 300% .
As a result of China of only 400000000, cardinal number is small, the baby boom population, the absolute number of relatively small .Second baby boom is begin from 1962 ,appeared in 1965 ,to 1973 ,the history of our country is the most populous of baby boomers born .
During this period ,the national economy has gradually improved ,the compensatory growth was very fierce ,the birth rate was 30 ? ~40 ?,an average of 33 per thousand ,10 years a total of nearly 260000000 people born .
The national total population accounted for about 20% .1986~1990 ,a baby boom population number already marry and settle down ,reach reproductive age ,and had a third baby boom baby boom ,called echo .
1990 is the 5 year of birth population up to a year .Because of the one-child policy ,the baby boomer population is not the main baby boom ,but there are also 124000000 ,close to the 10% of the population .
Notable is ,at present, a large population of after 80 generation has grown up ,continue to marry and settle down .Before 2015, China will usher in a new round of the baby boom ,which also constitutes the fourth baby boom .
The 2008 bear market fulfilled from above has 3 baby boom years in light of correspondence ,1949~1959 year corresponding to 49 years later, 1998~2008 years ,1962~1973 years corresponding to 49 years after 2011~2022 years ,1986~1990 years corresponding to 49 years later, for the years 2035~2039 .
Then ,at the age of 49 is also in China has fulfilled ?The answer is yes .From the economic indexes of GDP ,christian louboutin outlet,in 1998~2008 year during this period ,China GDP growth rate to 7.8% in 1998 ,8.
4% in 2000 ,up from 9.1% in 2002 ,2003 break two number 10% ,2005 11.3% ,2006 12.7% ,peaked in 2007 14.2% ;the last year in 2008 ,year-on-year GDP growth rate drops to 9.6% , broken 10 reproduction .
Overall, this time the economy has showed a high growth trend ,and 2008 ending ,it coincides with the baby boomers 49 year end economic sink theory .Corresponding to the stock market ,from the point of view, in 1998 the index in the 1000 point above walk ;by the middle of 2010, index on the breakthrough point of 2000 ;although later gradually lowered back to 1000 points in the vicinity, even in the middle of 2005 to a record low of 998 points, but then 2006~2007 years, economic growth the market index breath pull up 6124 at the peak in 2008 ,as everyone knows ;bear market fierce hit, eventually the market index rapid retreat water to 1664 points ,the achievements of the stock market the largest rolling round Niuxiong conversion .
In fact, the baby boomers and economic relationship is not difficult, China Department of economics of Nanjing University, vice director ,doctoral tutor Professor Ge Yang had in the last mentioned ,the anterior chamber in the market, young people aged 25~35 is the first big house groups ,accounting for about 50% of the total number of buyers ;35~45 years among middle-aged man is second houses groups ,accounts for about 25% of the total number of property buyers ,louboutin,this part of the population belongs to the two home .
The two phase of the crowd just belong to China baby boom stages ,that is the second and the third baby boom .According to Professor Ge Yang analysis ,third baby boom member which is now known as the post-80s generation ,live in economic prosperity ,the comfortable environment, have higher purchasing power ,they are entered Hunyu peak ,while universal than their parents have received better education ,in line with the trend of the times viewpoint of consumption and investment outlook ,this part of the crowd of mostly first-time home buyers .
As evidence ,2006 mainland residents to register to get married to the logarithm of the total rise to 9380000 ,entered Hunyu peak ,the corresponding is a small baby boomers born after the people around 25 years of age .
Second baby boom members being in the life the high income of the golden era,louboutin, present in all aspects of life ,have certain assets ,expecting to improve housing conditions to improve the quality of life ,and about the real estate development ,investment in real estate value ,value ,thus becoming the second major real estate industry housing groups .
It is one of two baby boomers first home peak and improve the investment phase of overlapping, eventually led to the Chinese real estate market demand so as to promote sales continued to rise quickly ,pushing up the prices .
QFII hunters activity history and theory if it can fit the words ,then the second baby boomers corresponds to the 49 year should be 2011~2022 years ,now is just the starting point ,it is a new round of economic cycle is formed ?This temporarily unable to inconclusive ,but there is a phenomenon worthy of attention .
According to the ( ,) iFinD information display ,the current overall earnings have been from the 2000 60~70 times ,down to the current 10.9 times ,the SSE Composite Index has fallen to a record low valuation .
In many investors still think is the selling or margin ,always one step ahead of QFII ,has quietly begun hunters tour .Released in August 13th by the QFII list shows, since July 12th ,the CSRC approves new 4 organizations QFII qualifications ,years has added 41 QFII A ticket more than any previous year .
At present, a total of 176 QFII approved .Securities and Futures Commission data show ,first half of this year in January and ,for the remaining 5 months QFII all the funds showed a net import situation ,and sustained growth ,year accumulative deposit funds 10422000000 yuan ,compared to the same period, were all grows considerably .
Since June two short months, QFII net to the scale of 8773000000 yuan .According to incomplete statistics ,louboutin pas cher,at present already announced half listing Corporation, QFII has appeared in 17 enterprises circulation shareholder list .
Among them, there are 15 listing Corporation holdings by QFII ,9 for QFII in the second quarter of this year has just intervention .For example just intervention ( ,) ( 002024 ,closing price 5.
99 yuan ) ,( ,) ( 600519 ,closing price 231.88 yuan ) for Morgan Stanley, the A stock market in the public information has some traces . Daily economic news reporter noticed ( ,) ,2012 June ,Morgan Stanley Asia and chief strategist Guo Qiangsheng ,had publicly to media say , data shows Chinese economy forward way ,and already in the two quarter the bottom ;the A shares and H shares valuation are significantly lower than historical levels ,at present Morgan Stanley has in global emerging market configuration, the Chinese market in the first .
So, QFII is indeed worthy of attention ./ opportunities / population structure affects consumption of baby boomers or stack effect in fact from the current point of view ,if a new long bull did not mention ,but because of the change of population structure and changes in the economy caused by the still prevalent in the .
Analysts told the daily economic news reporter ,such as baby boomers retire to disappear in the human cost of demographic dividend ,gradually increased, the mechanical automation will develop ,this logic is there .
So ,now should from what respect to judge the next economic development? Baby boomers in which plays a role in what ?Echo boomers marriage consumption first thought is the after 80 this part of the crowd is moving into marriage and child-bearing stage .
According to the Chinese Ministry of civil affairs and other public information display ,2000~2009 years year all 9120000 couples registered for marriage, and in 2009 of 11458000, for second consecutive years breaks through ten million to close greatly ;and by 2011 ,this number becomes the 13020000 ,grow 4.
9% compared to the same period .The new marriage registration is expected in recent years will be at a peak .The consumer is often with a strong flavor of the times ,70 three ring ,80 big three ,90 no drilling does not match ,then now ?According to the analyst study says ,marriage is regarded as the most important use of the milepost ,both men and women even parents years of savings ( even liabilities) to lay the wedding festivities night is brilliant it ,and other than consumption ,consumption of irrational components more married .
This is expected ,in marriage consumption during the outbreak ,every year new direct consumption will exceed 800000000000 yuan ,involving real estate ,decoration ,furniture ,home appliances ,cars ,jewelry ,wedding reception ,tourism and other industries .
In addition ,according to the Chinese baby market credibility of the quality of survey report shows ,China is now second only to the United States in the global second big baby product consumption country ,given the unique Chinese population size ,as well as foster children account for household consumption expenditure in proportion to increase ceaselessly ,Chinese baby economy still for more than 30% of the annual growth rate of rapid development .
Huatai United analysts expect infants aged 0~4 consumption scale to 2015 or will reach 1.67 yuan .Baby relates to plate was ,christian louboutin shoes,toys ,milk powder ,diapers and other .Aging support medical ,security needs to point out is that ,as baby boomers effect ,structure of population ageing in China is becoming more and more serious ,and this is now one of the most talked about the topic .
Are losing population dividend ,from another angle, also resulted in development of machinery industry .The most typical example is japan .During 1970~1980, Japanese wages rose far more than the mechanical price rises ,so as to promote the mechanization and automation .
Data display ,1975~1980 years ,louboutin,Japan CNC machine tool sales growth of 7 times much ,CNC machine tool sales in machine tool sales ratio increased from 16% to 43% ;semiconductor devices and integrated circuits output from 276400000 yen in 1975 increased to 1067300000 yen in 1981 ,with an average annual growth rate of 25.
3% .On the current China, 60 years of age or older population proportion has reached the level of Japan in 1970 ,and the labor age population peak is in the past, rising labor costs will promote the capital replacement of labor ,thereby accelerating the economic activities of the mechanization ,automation equipment of various enterprise nature is benefit .
The same is the aging structure,christian louboutin shoes, health industry ,health industry ,the insurance industry also will get the market strong support .According to the United States of America Analyst ( ,) on twentieth Century ,aging and premium growth contrast display ,premium growth and aging rate are correlated, the accelerated aging stage premium growth ,aging speed stabilized after a rapid decline in premium growth .
Analysts pointed out ,now senile diseases peculiar mainly cerebral arteriosclerosis ,chronic pulmonary emphysema ,spine and joint degeneration, osteoporosis ,louboutin pas cher,renal atrophy ,hypertrophy of the prostate ,most of these diseases are due to tissue caused degenerative changes in the elderly ;and increasing disease ,with arteriosclerosis ,malignant tumor ,heart disease ,hypertension ,stroke ,diabetes ,chronic bronchitis .
So for the elderly patients of coronary heart disease ,christian louboutin outlet,hypertension and cerebral vascular diseases of the circulatory system in first case ,the people securities analysts that the older the largest amount of lipid-lowering ,antihypertensive ,primarily to protect the heart and improve microcirculation of coronary artery and other cardiovascular drugs ,which relates to the enterprise is worth to pay close attention to .
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Source: http://www.tanned.me/chinese-baby-boomers-logic-new-bull-market-cycle-is-brewing-stock-channel-hex/

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